Rehan Qayoom Mir
Srinagar, Oct 08 : With the electoral dust finally settling on Tuesday, the coming days will reveal whether this election marks the dawn of a new era of stability or simply the continuation of a long tradition of political maneuvering and instability in Jammu and Kashmir.
With the National Conference (NC) sweeping 42 seats and the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) securing 29, fresh political equations are likely to reshape the future of erstwhile state.
As per the news agency, for the first time since 2002, a party has inched closer to the majority mark in the assembly. This electoral result is a historic departure from the era of fragile coalition governments, which have long plagued Jammu and Kashmir’s politics. However, it raises a critical question: Will the period of upheaval that has defined the state’s governance since the 1980s come to an end, or is more instability on the horizon?
A History of Political Instability
The region’s political history is punctuated by abrupt changes in power, Governor’s rule, and fragile coalitions. In 1983, Farooq Abdullah’s National Conference won an absolute majority, but by 1984, a faction led by Ghulam Mohammad Shah split from NC and formed a government with Congress support, only to collapse by 1986, leading to Governor’s rule. The situation deteriorated further after the 1987 elections when allegations of rigging resulted in a surge of separatist sentiment, culminating in the imposition of Governor’s rule once more in 1990.
Even during periods of relative stability, such as the 1996 elections when NC won 57 seats, political uncertainty lingered. Despite a solid majority, Farooq Abdullah’s tenure was short-lived, as Governor’s rule returned in 2002, marking the beginning of an era of coalition politics and continuous manipulation to retain power.
Coalition Politics Since 2002
The 2002 elections marked the start of a long tradition of coalition governments in Jammu and Kashmir. The NC emerged as the single largest party but remained out of power. Instead, the People’s Democratic Party (PDP) formed a government with Congress, an arrangement that eventually collapsed when Ghulam Nabi Azad became Chief Minister, and the PDP withdrew support in 2008.
The 2008 elections saw no party secure a majority, but Congress supported NC, allowing Omar Abdullah to become Chief Minister. His government marked a rare moment in the state’s history, as it was one of the few to complete its full term. This brief period of stability, however, was shattered by the volatile 2014 election results, which saw an unlikely PDP-BJP coalition. Despite the initial optimism, the alliance fractured in 2018, leading to another period of Governor’s rule and eventually, Lieutenant Governor’s rule following the abrogation of Article 370 in 2019.
A Troubled Road to Governance
Throughout the decades, Jammu and Kashmir has experienced political volatility, with only three Chief Ministers—Ghulam Mohammad Sadiq, Farooq Abdullah, and Omar Abdullah—completing full terms. Ghulam Mohammad Sadiq’s tenure, which lasted over six years, ended abruptly after his death, followed by short-lived tenures of other leaders. Even Sheikh Abdullah, the iconic leader of the National Conference, struggled to maintain political stability. His son, Farooq Abdullah, witnessed multiple periods of political chaos, most notably in the 1980s when internal party divisions and shifting alliances led to repeated impositions of Governor’s rule.
BJP’s Struggles in the Valley
Despite BJP’s high hopes of gaining a foothold in the Kashmir Valley after the abrogation of Article 370, results indicate that the party may once again be confined to its stronghold in Jammu. The BJP had targeted a “35-plus” seat tally in Jammu, buoyed by initiatives like granting 10% reservation to the hill community. However, these measures have not translated into significant gains in the Valley, and the BJP’s strategy to expand its influence beyond Jammu appears ruthlessly faltered.
Future Prospects
The future of Jammu and Kashmir’s political landscape remains uncertain, with the potential for new alliances and power struggles. With the NC- Congress alliance securing a majority, it is unclear if the party will ensure a more stable administration.Experts believe that Jammu and Kashmir’s political history is littered with instances of power-sharing agreements that collapsed under pressure, leading to repeated interventions by the central government.
The Struggle for Power Began Right After the First Election
After Jammu and Kashmir merged with India, Mehar Chand Mahajan served as the Prime Minister of the state from October 15, 1947, to March 5, 1948. After Mahajan’s removal, Sheikh Mohammad Abdullah became the new Prime Minister. For the first time, elections for the Constituent Assembly were held in August-September 1951. The National Conference, led by Sheikh Abdullah, won all 75 seats, with 73 candidates being elected unopposed. This solidified Sheikh Abdullah’s position as the first elected Prime Minister of the state. A few years later, Sheikh Abdullah was imprisoned and remained incarcerated for ten years, during which Bakshi Ghulam Mohammad assumed power.
Finally on Tuesday, as the results of the long-anticipated Jammu and Kashmir assembly elections emerged, the question remains that whether the region’s political landscape appears poised for another period of uncertainty?
